Five-Year Outlook Points to Steady Growth After Record-Setting Demand Cools
The Global Jet Capital Business Jet Market Outlook provides a summary of the outputs of our proprietary transaction forecast model covering the period of 2023 through 2027. It reflects our projection of future activity in the business jet market in both the new and pre-owned market segments across different geographic markets around the world. The business jet market shrank in 2022 as OEMs continued to deal with supply chain constraints and the pre-owned market normalized from a historically strong 2021. Despite some headwinds in 2023, the business jet market remains resilient, and we forecast steady growth over the next five years.
Total new and pre-owned business jet transaction unit volume is forecast to decrease 2.6 percent in 2023 as pre-owned transactions continue to normalize from the all-time high volume seen in 2021. However, the increase in new deliveries and growing demand for larger jets should result in a 1 percent increase in transaction dollar volume.
Following a strong 2021, major aircraft manufacturers continued to report strong order intake in 2022. At the same time, supply chain constraints continued to limit production. The combination resulted in increased backlogs. Most manufacturers plan to increase production over the next few years as a result. New deliveries are expected to increase 6.3 percent in 2023, while new delivery dollar volume should increase 12.2 percent. Over the next five years, new deliveries are forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.6 percent and dollar volume should grow at a CAGR of 6.4 percent.
Pre-owned transactions are expected to continue declining in 2023 as they did in 2022. Unit volume is forecast to decline 4.8 percent while dollar volume is forecast to decline 8.5 percent. Continued market demand, however, should lead to more pre-owned deliveries over the next five years. Pre-owned transactions are expected to increase at a CAGR of 2.5 percent, with dollar volume remaining stable over that time.
North America is forecast to continue to be the largest market for both new and pre-owned business jets, making up 77 percent of the total market. Europe is also an important market and Latin America will remain a significant market for pre-owned aircraft.