Following two years of decline, the business jet market is expected to grow again in 2024
The Global Jet Capital Business Jet Market Outlook summarizes the outputs of our proprietary transaction forecast model covering the period of 2024 through 2028. It reflects our projection of future activity in the business jet market in both the new and pre-owned segments across different geographies.
The business jet transaction market shrank in 2023 as OEMs continued to deal with supply chain and labor constraints and the pre-owned market continued to normalize from a historically strong 2021. Despite some headwinds in 2024, the business jet market remains resilient, and we forecast steady growth over the next five years.
Total new and pre-owned business jet transaction unit volume is forecast to increase 5.3 percent in 2024 as OEMs increase production to meet large backlogs and the pre-owned market continues long-term growth trends. Transaction dollar volume should increase at a higher rate of 10.7 percent in 2024 due to an expected increase in new heavy aircraft deliveries. After years of strong order intake and deliveries limited by supply chain and labor constraints, backlogs at major business jet OEMs are significantly higher than they were prior to COVID-19. As a result, manufacturers are expected to increase production over the forecast period to fulfill these orders. New deliveries should increase 9.4 percent in 2024 and grow at an average annual rate of 3.2 percent over the next five years. Deliveries will likely peak in 2027, followed by a slight dip in 2028 as backlogs normalize.
After a couple of years of declines, pre-owned transactions are expected to return to a more typical growth pattern in 2024. Unit volume should increase 4 percent and dollar volume should increase 2.2 percent in 2024. Average annual growth over the next five years is expected to continue at a rate of 3.8 percent. Dollar volume should grow at an average annual rate of 2.3 percent during that time.
North America is forecast to continue to be the largest market for both new and pre-owned business jets, making up 76.3 percent of the total market. Europe is also an important market and Latin America will remain a significant market for pre-owned aircraft.
